Mon, Apr 26, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 115 | 010 | 132 |
| STL | 25 | 212 | 03 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Torey Krug, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 13:34STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 7:02STLDavid PerronAssists: Justin Faulk, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 8:24COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 10:53STLRobert ThomasAssists: David Perron, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:17COLPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52STLMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:22STLJake Walman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:04COLMartin Kaut: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:43STLJake Walman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Bellemare – Sherwood5:25
xG 0.97–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Nichushkin – Jost10:51
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Sherwood – Kaut2:23
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Compher – Bellemare2:13
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Timmins10:17
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard12:31
xG 0.28–0.23 (56%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Kyrou – Thomas11:16
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn10:52
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Bozak – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:19
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Blais – Thomas2:50
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Faulk14:32
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 3–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola11:10
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Krug – Santini3:23
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).