Sun, Feb 7, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 212 | 110 | 010 | 332 |
| VGK | 313 | 010 | 110 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Mikey Anderson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:57VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 7:06LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 7:32VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Cody Glass, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 11:37VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 8:53LAKJaret Anderson-DolanAssists: Trevor Moore, Austin Wagner · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 1:38VGKChandler StephensonPPGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:02VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:47LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:45VGKRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:59LAKCarl Grundstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:34VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Amadio – Wagner7:37
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:45
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Kempe – Vilardi – Andersson5:01
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Anderson-Dolan4:20
xG 0.01–0.12 (7%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson15:18
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Clague – Strand2:10
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Doughty – Maatta2:04
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek7:56
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tuch – Roy – Glass8:42
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:21
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson8:53
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:16
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Holden – Coghlan10:22
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Theodore – Coghlan2:05
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).