Tue, Apr 13, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 07 | 110 | 01 | 0 | 223 |
| BOS | 111 | 113 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52BUFColin MillerAssists: Dylan Cozens, Anders Bjork · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:20BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:29BOSCraig SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:53BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 2. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
- 3. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 4. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:32BOSNick Ritchie: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:51BOSJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:23BOSCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:46BUFMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46BOSNick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:14BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:14BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:29BUFMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- OT 5:00BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Eakin – Sheahan4:00
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt7:39
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen5:17
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson6:19
xG 0.07–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Bryson16:49
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Irwin – Miller14:43
xG 0.30–0.79 (27%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin15:42
xG 0.36–1.04 (25%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:03
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lazar10:47
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk7:50
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Krejci – Smith – Hall10:29
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy17:10
xG 1.38–0.44 (76%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Clifton11:42
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Miller – Reilly16:02
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).