Mon, Feb 8, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 117 | 210 | 335 |
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:33OTTEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:11EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 6:09EDMTyler EnnisGWGAssists: William Lagesson, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 18:50EDMJosh ArchibaldENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:41EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:41OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43OTTErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:19OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12OTTChris Tierney: Interference2 min
- P1 16:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Broken stick2 min
- P2 7:44OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:56EDMAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:00
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:54
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira8:51
xG 0.35–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Turris – Draisaitl2:59
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse15:54
xG 1.29–0.36 (78%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Larsson – Lagesson14:28
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Russell – Bouchard12:18
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Stepan – Watson – Galchenyuk2:31
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Paul – White – Batherson4:44
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Norris – Tkachuk7:58
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Watson – Paul – White2:31
xG 0.07–0.30 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub2:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Reilly3:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev13:11
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).