Tue, Apr 13, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 06 | 015 | 130 |
| WSH | 419 | 17 | 16 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07WSHConor ShearyAssists: Daniel Sprong, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:45PHISean CouturierAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 11:32WSHTom WilsonPPGWGAssists: Conor Sheary, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:25WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P1 18:21WSHCarl HagelinAssists: John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 9:22WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 5:10WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:57PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:46PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:26WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:27PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:25WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Lindblom – Laczynski5:21
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Hayes3:56
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Laughton – Konecny – Patrick5:48
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee9:11
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov12:57
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:10
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim4:47
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Mantha12:43
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Eller – Sheary – Sprong10:20
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:18
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:28
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov15:36
xG 0.93–0.61 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Chara – Jensen15:05
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon17:14
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).