Sat, May 1, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 112 | 07 | 01 | 331 |
| MIN | 06 | 112 | 219 | 11 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:00STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:49STLSammy BlaisAssists: Tyler Bozak, Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:53MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:41STLDavid PerronAssists: Niko Mikkola, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 14:09MINNico SturmAssists: Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:00MINJonas BrodinAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:16MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 19:07STLTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:10MINIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Schenn15:59
xG 0.89–0.49 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Kyrou – Thomas9:35
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Clifford – Sanford – Barbashev10:30
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Blais12:36
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Mikkola13:02
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Scandella – Faulk20:10
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Parayko – Walman13:25
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:18
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm5:28
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Rask – Fiala – Sturm4:12
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Rask – Fiala7:54
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy14:53
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Suter – Spurgeon16:02
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba18:34
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).