Tue, Feb 9, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 19 | 38 | 423 |
| VGK | 210 | 29 | 112 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Dylan Coghlan · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:52VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 2:39VGKAlex TuchAssists: Cody Glass · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:38ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Maxime Comtois, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:42VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Cody Glass, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 5:02ANATroy TerryAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 7:23ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 9:59ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 16:04VGKZach WhitecloudGWGAssists: William Carrier, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:41ANADavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P1 12:42VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Throwing equipment2 min
- P1 18:56VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:56ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:00VGKNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Terry8:51
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Silfverberg – Heinen – Steel12:00
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Rakell – Comtois – Lundeström9:32
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Backes – Deslauriers – Rowney8:41
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindholm18:58
xG 0.97–0.70 (58%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
- Hutton – Larsson13:21
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Fowler – Hakanpää15:16
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:49
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:31
xG 0.57–0.58 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Tuch – Roy – Glass11:14
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek4:58
xG 0.16–0.43 (28%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Holden3:04
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud4:39
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Holden – Whitecloud2:04
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).