Sun, Apr 25, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 111 | 17 | 06 | 2 | 332 |
| PHI | 116 | 09 | 28 | 03 | 3 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Nathan Bastian, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Philippe Myers, Ivan Provorov · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:07NJDMiles WoodAssists: Nathan Bastian, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 9:16NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 18:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:56PHIClaude GirouxAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 2. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 3. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 4. NJD Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 6. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 7. PHI Scott Laughton stopped
- 8. NJD Jesper Boqvist stopped
- 9. PHI Ivan Provorov stopped
- 10. NJD Pavel Zacha stopped
- 11. PHI Kevin Hayes scored
- 12. NJD Nico Hischier stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 19:23NJDNick Merkley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:42PHIKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:14PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- OT 1:01PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier11:21
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Merkley – Boqvist9:28
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes13:02
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod10:23
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Severson16:03
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Tennyson – White13:31
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Murray – Carrick2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier11:16
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Allison8:08
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Patrick – Cates6:22
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee10:19
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov15:31
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers4:30
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers3:46
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).