Thu, Feb 11, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 018 | 09 | 115 | 142 |
| WPG | 06 | 39 | 211 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:08WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Mason Appleton, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:53WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Kyle Connor · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 19:33WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P3 2:58WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mark Scheifele, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
- P3 11:42OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Christian Wolanin, Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 13:45WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:31WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 3:23OTTAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24OTTErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Batherson – Stützle10:45
xG 1.01–0.42 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Tkachuk12:05
xG 1.02–0.43 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Paul – White10:14
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Galchenyuk – Norris5:44
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Reilly14:58
xG 1.55–0.24 (87%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev18:08
xG 1.67–0.81 (67%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Chabot2:34
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Lowry – Appleton11:25
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois12:55
xG 0.63–1.14 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers11:25
xG 0.26–1.62 (14%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Stanley3:31
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu5:52
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley3:28
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).