Thu, Feb 11, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 16 | 112 | 326 |
| VAN | 014 | 110 | 010 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 6:31VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:31CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Juuso Välimäki · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:58CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:40CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:34VANJustin Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:47CGYChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:30VANBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:05CGYJuuso Välimäki: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:10VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 19:10CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:48CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:32VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Mangiapane9:55
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett8:41
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Froese – Nordstrom – Leivo5:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Lindholm – Tkachuk2:29
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:30
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Andersson9:06
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Välimäki2:49
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson9:25
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Sutter – Bailey – Gaudette3:40
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – MacEwen2:48
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander11:13
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt11:12
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Hughes7:12
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes5:15
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).