Thu, Feb 11, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 210 | 29 | 532 |
| DAL | 09 | 318 | 010 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:16DALMark PysykAssists: Jason Robertson, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:46CARJordan StaalAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 8:25DALRoope HintzAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 11:28DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 19:33CARBrock McGinnAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 3:58CARNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 19:06CARWarren FoegeleENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:01CARNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:54DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P1 13:32CARMorgan Geekie: Holding2 min
- P1 15:37DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:50CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40CARRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:55DALMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – McGinn12:12
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Fast – Dzingel – Geekie3:31
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov9:47
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho8:49
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:18
xG 0.93–0.56 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:17
xG 0.73–0.78 (48%)attempts 19–14goals 1–2
- Gardiner – Fleury9:54
xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Gurianov – Robertson8:09
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Faksa – Caamano – Dellandrea4:18
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Benn – Kiviranta10:31
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Caamano – Dellandrea2:11
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Pysyk12:47
xG 1.09–0.31 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:29
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:13
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 11–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).