Mon, May 10, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 08 | 06 | 225 |
| PHI | 110 | 110 | 211 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 5:21NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Will Butcher, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:44PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes, Wade Allison · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 10:06PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 12:25PHIJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 16:08PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Wade Allison, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:57NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:19NJDJesper Boqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:47NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:43PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:15PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:13NJDMichael McLeod: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier11:47
xG 0.81–0.28 (75%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod7:43
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Boqvist – Foote8:13
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes9:27
xG 0.20–1.25 (14%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Murray – Severson12:01
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher2:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Butcher – Bahl2:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Lindblom – Patrick10:30
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hayes – Allison – Farabee7:50
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Laughton11:43
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:14
xG 0.34–0.59 (37%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov4:06
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Provorov – Myers2:52
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers9:41
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).