Sat, Feb 13, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 417 | 27 | 628 |
| FLA | 011 | 014 | 19 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:11TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:32TBLMathieu JosephGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 12:58TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Gemel Smith · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 19:48TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jan Rutta · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 9:47FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Brett Connolly, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 10:58TBLAlexander VolkovAssists: Gemel Smith, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 15:45TBLBarclay GoodrowAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:46FLAEetu Luostarinen: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 9:33TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:35FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:35TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 3:20FLAMarkus Nutivaara: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:14TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08TBLPatrick Maroon: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:33TBLBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:33FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:01TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01FLAPatric Hornqvist: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:01FLAPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:10TBLGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:10FLAKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Coleman – Joseph5:41
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Smith – Joseph – Volkov3:26
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Maroon – Goodrow – Gourde9:07
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Point11:46
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak10:26
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Schenn – Sergachev7:31
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Hedman – Foote2:29
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov5:31
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen5:02
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Verhaeghe – Wennberg4:50
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 11–1goals 0–1
- Connolly – Acciari – Lomberg5:17
xG 0.07–0.13 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas8:06
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad13:04
xG 0.81–0.77 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Stralman – Nutivaara10:10
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).