Sun, Feb 14, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 214 | 08 | 331 |
| PIT | 210 | 211 | 217 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:29PITBryan RustAssists: Mike Matheson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:01PITBrandon TanevAssists: Cody Ceci, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 3:26WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 6:44PITBryan RustPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 10:44PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P2 17:49WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:57PITZachary Aston-ReeseENAssists: Kris Letang, Tristan Jarry · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
- P3 19:11PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:26PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:38PITJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:59WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:17WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:06PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Panik – Sheary8:03
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:34
xG 0.55–0.13 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:43
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:10
xG 0.03–0.68 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:18
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Dillon15:50
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:20
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:47
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:27
xG 1.13–0.87 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen10:12
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Lafferty5:55
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino16:38
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Ceci – Ruhwedel10:00
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph15:03
xG 0.53–1.09 (33%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).