Sun, Feb 14, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 011 | 010 | 030 |
| VGK | 09 | 19 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:38VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:42COLJayson Megna: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:34COLConor Timmins: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:58VGKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 11:28COLConor Timmins: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – O'Connor8:02
xG 0.65–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky9:57
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Saad – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:51
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Megna – Bellemare – Dries6:01
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Timmins2:54
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Timmins7:06
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Toews – Byram9:10
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:17
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:24
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Glass10:09
xG 0.10–0.70 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy8:56
xG 0.23–1.00 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo18:06
xG 1.06–0.71 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud15:11
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Holden – Coghlan10:02
xG 0.36–1.38 (21%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).