Mon, Feb 15, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 26 | 011 | 03 | 14 | 324 |
| DET | 113 | 06 | 19 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19CHIMattias JanmarkAssists: Carl Soderberg, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:09CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 19:45DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 5:49DETChristian DjoosAssists: Frans Nielsen, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:43CHIDominik KubalikGWGAssists: Pius Suter, Nicolas Beaudin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:38DETPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:18CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:46DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43DETRobby Fabbri: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 2:42CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Janmark – Kurashev8:57
xG 0.25–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Wallmark – Kampf – Johnson5:33
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Wallmark – Hagel – Kampf2:03
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Strome – Hagel7:58
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Zadorov4:35
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Mitchell17:28
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- de Haan – Carlsson11:50
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Zadina – Brome10:10
xG 0.46–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Gagner – Namestnikov7:13
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Erne6:56
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Ryan – Mantha – Fabbri10:17
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Djoos11:07
xG 0.59–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Staal – Stecher13:22
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek3:33
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).