Mon, Feb 15, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 212 | 06 | 11 | 427 |
| VAN | 27 | 010 | 116 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51VANTanner PearsonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:44VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.34 xG0–2
- P1 19:35CGYMilan LucicAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Connor Mackey · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 10:40CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:51CGYDillon DubeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:29VANBrock BoeserSHAssists: Tyler Myers, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:23CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:51CGYDillon Dube: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:54CGYConnor Mackey: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:17CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:23CGYConnor Mackey: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:36VANNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P2 18:29VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:32CGYElias Lindholm: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:49CGYConnor Mackey: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:49CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:49VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:39VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:38VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Simon12:30
xG 0.94–0.56 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:03
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Froese – Nordstrom – Robinson3:04
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube8:00
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Mackey11:18
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Giordano – Välimäki9:56
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin14:06
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson9:22
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette6:33
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander9:33
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Beagle – Virtanen5:35
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt12:27
xG 0.69–0.32 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Juolevi9:55
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Edler – Hughes2:31
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).