Mon, Feb 15, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 315 | 013 | 012 | 340 |
| CAR | 212 | 313 | 29 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 5:55CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nick Foligno, Vladislav Gavrikov · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 13:14CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 15:53CBJKevin StenlundAssists: Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–1
- P1 18:32CARJordan StaalAssists: Warren Foegele, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P2 1:29CARBrock McGinnAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 1:56CARTeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Brock McGinn, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 19:13CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 11:35CARBrock McGinnAssists: Jake Bean, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 11:54CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:50CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 8:15CARJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33CBJDean Kukan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:22CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:35CBJKevin Stenlund: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Texier13:43
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Matteau – Texier – Robinson3:26
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine13:21
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Nash – Matteau – Robinson7:55
xG 0.26–0.37 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Gavrikov19:39
xG 1.55–0.71 (68%)attempts 20–18goals 2–0
- Savard – Kukan13:08
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–3
- Del Zotto – Peeke14:49
xG 0.44–1.60 (21%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – McGinn – Aho9:02
xG 1.07–0.64 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 4–1
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov13:46
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas14:40
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Fast – Martinook – Paquette10:11
xG 0.09–0.50 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Bean13:43
xG 1.15–0.38 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Pesce15:42
xG 0.97–0.51 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Slavin18:22
xG 0.77–1.60 (32%)attempts 18–26goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).