Wed, Feb 17, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 315 | 110 | 533 |
| CGY | 08 | 113 | 015 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46VANJordie BennAssists: Bo Horvat, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:37VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 18:13CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mark Giordano, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 18:28VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 19:05VANNate SchmidtAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 5:54VANBrock BoeserAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:17CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:29VANJake Virtanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:07VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:56
xG 0.95–0.29 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander12:12
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette12:03
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Virtanen9:45
xG 0.20–0.73 (22%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt17:19
xG 1.15–0.42 (73%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Hughes13:53
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
- Myers – Juolevi17:55
xG 0.52–1.08 (32%)attempts 12–25goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Nordstrom – Tkachuk2:04
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Ritchie – Bennett2:01
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Dube4:20
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Simon2:48
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Välimäki17:46
xG 1.33–0.46 (75%)attempts 28–9goals 1–2
- Tanev – Hanifin17:18
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Nesterov – Andersson14:46
xG 0.53–1.13 (32%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).