Wed, Feb 17, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 115 | 07 | 113 | 235 |
| EDM | 29 | 110 | 011 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:06EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Tyler Ennis, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:06WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 16:45EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 1:28WPGNeal PionkAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:02EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:17EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:06EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:24WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 5:11EDMKris Russell: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:57WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:56WPGNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32WPGPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:54EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:48EDMJosh Archibald: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:10WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P3 16:51WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Appleton6:27
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 16–1goals 0–1
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor5:54
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers5:38
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp6:05
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Beaulieu7:11
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk9:34
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey14:55
xG 0.52–0.68 (44%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi7:52
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Ennis – Draisaitl – Yamamoto8:45
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Turris – Chiasson – Haas3:25
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Archibald – Khaira – Kahun7:01
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Larsson10:52
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Koekkoek – Bouchard5:43
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse14:41
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).