Thu, Feb 18, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 311 | 08 | 326 |
| BOS | 07 | 18 | 112 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:34NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:39NJDKyle PalmieriSHAssists: Damon Severson, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 12:36BOSJake DeBruskPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 15:37NJDPavel ZachaGWGAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:54BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:29BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:14BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:14NJDKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:01BOSJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05NJDP.K. Subban: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:08NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:01BOSJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:36BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:49NJDTy Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Bastian – McLeod9:19
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bratt – Maltsev – Sharangovich3:52
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Johnsson – Hughes4:26
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes4:15
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Vatanen9:54
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Severson – Smith14:17
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Subban – Butcher14:33
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Bjork3:20
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak5:27
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic5:01
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak5:33
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy13:49
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Clifton9:29
xG 0.28–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Carlo12:20
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).