Thu, Feb 18, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 011 | 17 | 132 |
| PIT | 111 | 115 | 211 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 18:01PITTeddy BluegerGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P3 9:11PITJason ZuckerAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 15:39NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 16:54PITBryan RustENAssists: Jason Zucker, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:18NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:18PITBrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:38PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:19PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:51NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:14NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:27PITMike Matheson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:47NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:47NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:33NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal10:03
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Bellows5:56
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal3:59
xG 0.15–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom8:26
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield9:06
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dobson4:51
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:06
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:24
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust12:00
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Kapanen14:36
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Lafferty – O'Connor4:23
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino17:46
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 16–18goals 3–0
- Ceci – Pettersson12:03
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph15:28
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).