Tue, Mar 2, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Dallas Stars 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 08 | 16 | 219 |
| DAL | 011 | 07 | 010 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 19:55TBLYanni GourdeENAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:19DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:17TBLBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47DALNick Caamano: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:14DALJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:15TBLBrayden Point: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:58DALAndrew Cogliano: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:58TBLCal Foote: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:31DALNick Caamano: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Joseph – Colton5:29
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point7:50
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:21
xG 0.01–0.38 (2%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:12
xG 0.02–0.58 (4%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Rutta10:31
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev3:57
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote5:38
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Gurianov – Robertson9:13
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Dickinson9:57
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:04
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Dowling – Kero – Caamano2:39
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell10:28
xG 0.74–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Hanley3:56
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak3:17
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).