Fri, Feb 19, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 210 | 110 | 329 |
| CAR | 17 | 115 | 316 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:03CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Jake Bean, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 16:39CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:49CHIIan MitchellAssists: David Kampf, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:28CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 15:04CARNino NiederreiterPPGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 16:46CARJaccob SlavinENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
- P3 19:09CHICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Adam Boqvist · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:01CARBrady Skjei: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:13CARMartin Necas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:04CHIIan Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P3 2:14CHIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:42CHINikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:38CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P3 13:36CHIAdam Boqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00CARJesper Fast: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Carpenter – Kampf3:09
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Strome – Hagel2:31
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Hagel – Kurashev2:26
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev4:02
xG 0.28–0.45 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Zadorov2:36
xG 0.21–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Beaudin6:45
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Carlsson8:27
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – McGinn – Aho11:52
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas12:12
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov8:01
xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fast – Martinook – Paquette8:26
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Bean11:10
xG 0.77–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:46
xG 0.99–0.84 (54%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce4:08
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).