Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 213 | 15 | 424 |
| WSH | 08 | 111 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:57NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–0
- P2 17:44NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Anthony Bitetto · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 18:43NYRRyan StromeAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 19:21WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:48NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:03NYRLibor Hajek: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:55WSHRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25NYRJulien Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:36WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54NYRAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P3 18:42WSHRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Strome – Buchnevich9:15
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Di Giuseppe – Rooney7:41
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière8:08
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden6:39
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:59
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Hajek9:59
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Lindgren – Hajek2:23
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Vrana9:15
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway6:03
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Eller – Panik – Sheary6:52
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov10:06
xG 0.09–0.61 (13%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen8:12
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Chara – Schultz7:26
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:09
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).