Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 1, Edmonton Oilers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 119 | 014 | 011 | 144 |
| EDM | 310 | 38 | 16 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 5:41EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 7:54CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.54 xG1–2
- P1 17:11EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 1:06EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 8:12EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Kris Russell, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P2 12:38EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, James Neal · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 0:36EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Dominik Kahun, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.20 xG1–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:46CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 3:31CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:31EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:59EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P1 7:54EDMTyler Ennis: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 16:55CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:24CGYNikita Nesterov: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:14CGYElias Lindholm: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:04EDMJujhar Khaira: Interference2 min
- P2 16:00EDMKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:13CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P3 6:55EDMJosh Archibald: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Bennett – Dube9:34
xG 1.19–0.25 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Leivo – Lindholm4:57
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:48
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Robinson – Lindholm3:49
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:36
xG 1.15–0.44 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Välimäki2:14
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson10:54
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:59
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Puljujarvi – Kahun2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas7:08
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun6:56
xG 0.34–0.84 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Nurse10:49
xG 0.71–0.67 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:45
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse6:36
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).