Sun, Feb 21, 2021·Edgewood Tahoe Resort, StatelineOutdoor game
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Boston Bruins 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 03 | 15 | 319 |
| BOS | 28 | 415 | 112 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:41PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:48PHISean CouturierAssists: Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 15:27BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Brad Marchand, Connor Clifton · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 0:46BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Nick Ritchie, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:14BOSCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Craig Smith · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 16:47BOSTrent FredericAssists: John Moore, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P2 17:53BOSNick RitchiePPAssists: John Moore, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.36 xG2–6
- P3 12:45PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 17:04BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Jack Studnicka · Slap, 0.16 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:34PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17PHIAndy Andreoff: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:47PHIAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16BOSAnders Bjork: Holding2 min
- P3 9:31BOSAnders Bjork: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:37BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Raffl – Aube-Kubel8:03
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Bunnaman – Patrick – Sushko6:42
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Aube-Kubel – Patrick3:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee9:44
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Sanheim12:11
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Gustafsson – Hagg10:07
xG 0.24–0.23 (50%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Provorov – Myers12:09
xG 0.12–0.40 (24%)attempts 12–8goals 0–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:06
xG 0.56–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Bjork – DeBrusk – Studnicka11:04
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Frederic9:18
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Smith – Coyle – Ritchie10:47
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – McAvoy4:12
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Clifton – Carlo8:14
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Moore – Clifton9:23
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).