Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 08 | 210 | 325 |
| WSH | 010 | 07 | 112 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 5:55WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 17:28NYRMika ZibanejadGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:32NYRBrett HowdenENAssists: Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:57NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:16WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:20NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P2 5:54NYRBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:41WSHBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:44WSHCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:12NYRBrendan Lemieux: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière5:37
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Rooney – Howden2:43
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:57
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin10:58
xG 0.29–0.82 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:24
xG 0.70–0.54 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Smith – Hajek6:54
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Trouba2:27
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:30
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov4:16
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson5:31
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Sheary – Vrana5:38
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon16:01
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
- Schultz – Orlov14:41
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen8:09
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).