Sun, Feb 21, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 19 | 212 | 11 | 431 |
| VAN | 217 | 09 | 18 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38VANBrandon SutterAssists: Jordie Benn · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 15:40VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 14:37WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:43WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:33WPGNeal PionkPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:22VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:27WPGPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:30VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30WPGDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:10WPGDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:18VANNils Hoglander: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16WPGDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:44VANBrandon Sutter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:47WPGNathan Beaulieu: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:52VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:47WPGJosh Morrissey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Dubois13:44
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton8:59
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor13:16
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault3:42
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Poolman – Morrissey12:29
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Forbort – Pionk13:02
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:06
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Virtanen – MacEwen4:09
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette7:41
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson10:48
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander12:33
xG 0.59–0.65 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Hughes12:45
xG 0.97–0.29 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Edler – Schmidt15:44
xG 0.92–0.53 (63%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Myers – Juolevi13:14
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).