Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 113 | 312 | 437 |
| NJD | 015 | 06 | 121 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:20BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 5:16BUFRasmus AsplundGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 6:50BUFDylan CozensAssists: Taylor Hall, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 19:32NJDNikita GusevAssists: P.K. Subban, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 19:59BUFCody EakinENAssists: Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:17NJDMichael McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:45BUFJacob Bryson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:27NJDSami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:10BUFVictor Olofsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Eakin – Asplund10:55
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Hall – Cozens13:33
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Lazar – Mittelstadt11:07
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:13
xG 0.38–0.54 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin16:21
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson14:45
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Irwin – Jokiharju15:07
xG 0.78–0.79 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Johnsson – Hughes8:04
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod9:37
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Zajac – Gusev – Johnsson2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier6:51
xG 0.11–0.35 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Vatanen14:16
xG 0.78–0.55 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Severson – Smith17:17
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Subban – Murray15:26
xG 0.70–1.06 (40%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).