Mon, Feb 22, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 112 | 17 | 331 |
| STL | 07 | 010 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:30LAKGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Carl Grundstrom · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 18:54LAKDustin BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 18:57LAKDustin BrownENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–0
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:24STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:01LAKAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:35STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kempe – Vilardi9:49
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:45
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Amadio – Wagner8:58
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Lizotte11:30
xG 0.38–1.20 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Walker14:14
xG 0.93–0.72 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Roy – Bjornfot15:21
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:34
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – MacEachern – de la Rose7:05
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou14:06
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Poganski5:50
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Schenn – Blais9:39
xG 0.02–0.76 (3%)attempts 2–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn2:05
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk3:29
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Scandella3:48
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).