Mon, Feb 22, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 312 | 06 | 328 |
| COL | 08 | 011 | 015 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:53VGKAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 6:14VGKAlex TuchAssists: Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:06VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:50COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:32COLConor Timmins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:18VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:23COLBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P3 18:20COLMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Kolesar6:31
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Roy9:56
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Smith – Glass8:31
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Tuch12:09
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Whitecloud15:35
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Coghlan – Hague12:50
xG 0.69–0.90 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore19:27
xG 0.52–0.90 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:04
xG 0.81–0.12 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:52
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Calvert – Donskoi – Bellemare2:27
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Timmins6:20
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard5:45
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).