Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 118 | 06 | 11 | 337 |
| WSH | 06 | 29 | 07 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:38WSHRichard PanikAssists: Zdeno Chara, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:18WSHConor ShearyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 13:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: John Marino, Kasperi Kapanen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:43PITKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Teddy Blueger, Tristan Jarry · Slap, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:17PITMike Matheson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:24WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 9:55PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:21WSHJustin Schultz: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Kapanen16:10
xG 1.01–0.19 (84%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese8:21
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Aston-Reese2:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Lafferty5:37
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph14:47
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ceci2:10
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Pettersson15:34
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Eller – Wilson11:20
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Panik11:54
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:03
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Sheary – Vrana11:17
xG 0.36–0.71 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen15:09
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:43
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov14:03
xG 0.57–0.80 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).