Wed, Feb 24, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 3, Florida Panthers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 011 | 26 | 326 |
| FLA | 017 | 014 | 012 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Dickinson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 2:17DALEsa LindellAssists: Radek Faksa, Justin Dowling · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 16:26DALJoel KivirantaENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:55FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:13DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P1 15:44FLAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:45DALJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45DALJason Dickinson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:15FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:54FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 14:21DALJoel Kiviranta: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDowling – Caamano – Robertson3:59
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Dowling – Caamano2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Gardner7:09
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Dickinson – Kiviranta9:21
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Oleksiak3:18
xG 0.03–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Pysyk8:23
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen12:49
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:06
xG 1.06–0.09 (92%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg8:36
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Connolly – Vatrano – Luostarinen10:26
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Lammikko – Lomberg7:22
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas4:08
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad9:24
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Gudas – Forsling4:17
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).