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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Chicago Blackhawks 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (SO)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.

CBJ winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CHI21721115011634
CBJ1521228050530

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:11CHICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:03CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Pius Suter, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P1 11:34CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P2 0:48CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Seth Jones, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 8:12CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Patrick Kane, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 9:24CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P2 15:05CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Duncan Keith, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 3:37CHIAdam BoqvistPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik · Slap, 0.82 xG5–3
  9. P3 10:00CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Gabriel Carlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG5–4
  10. P3 16:00CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
  2. 2. CHI Alex DeBrincat scored
  3. 3. CBJ Patrik Laine stopped
  4. 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Jack Roslovic stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 7:19CBJKevin Stenlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 0:41CHICarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:36CHIIan Mitchell: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  4. P2 5:46CHIMatthew Highmore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 8:24CHIAdam Boqvist: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P2 10:13CBJMax Domi: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 1:46CBJScott Harrington: High sticking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 2:56CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 6:50CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
  10. P3 6:50CHIPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 8:13CHIDavid Kampf: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
46% to win54% to win
← CHI attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Roslovic
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHICBJ
34Shots on goal30
3.4Expected goals3.0
61Shot attempts46
34Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
14Hits13
9Blocked shots17
12Giveaways15
0Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestCarpenter – Highmore – Kampf6:14

    xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  2. Kubalik – Wallmark – Hagel6:48

    xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–2

  3. Kane – DeBrincat – Suter13:07

    xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0

  4. Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev8:46

    xG 0.04–0.01 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestde Haan – Boqvist6:55

    xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  2. Keith – Murphy2:23

    xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0

  3. Keith – de Haan3:51

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestAtkinson – Jenner – Roslovic7:52

    xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0

  2. Domi – Stenlund – Texier2:04

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Nash – Domi – Stenlund3:53

    xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  4. Grigorenko – Texier – Robinson4:50

    xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJones – Gavrikov18:04

    xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1

  2. Carlsson – Peeke2:07

    xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Harrington – Peeke8:01

    xG 0.04–0.27 (13%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.0 xGCHI 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #3 of 868 this seasonSwing 3.04 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.

CBJ winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).