Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 010 | 310 | 429 |
| VAN | 311 | 09 | 013 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06VANBo HorvatAssists: Nate Schmidt, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:06VANTyler MyersUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 15:17VANElias PetterssonAssists: J.T. Miller, Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P1 18:43EDMDominik KahunAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:55EDMDominik KahunAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 4:23EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.28 xG3–3
- P3 13:25EDMTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Adam Larsson · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:12EDMTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:19VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:47EDMGaetan Haas: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:37VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Russell – Haas6:01
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:31
xG 0.87–0.61 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:23
xG 0.92–0.87 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira9:14
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse15:40
xG 1.58–1.04 (60%)attempts 20–21goals 2–1
- Jones – Bouchard10:29
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Larsson17:03
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Roussel – Gaudette7:49
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson12:33
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Beagle – Virtanen – MacEwen7:48
xG 0.06–0.26 (20%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander10:52
xG 0.55–0.92 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Hughes12:50
xG 0.86–0.82 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Myers – Juolevi13:00
xG 0.40–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Myers – Hughes2:06
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).