Thu, Feb 25, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 217 | 011 | 239 |
| FLA | 010 | 010 | 315 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:10DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Justin Dowling, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 17:49DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 13:39FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P3 14:31FLAAnton StralmanAssists: Mason Marchment, Eetu Luostarinen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 16:50FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:46FLAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:11DALJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Lammikko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Gardner6:44
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Caamano – Robertson2:06
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dowling – Caamano – Robertson4:36
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Faksa – Gurianov10:59
xG 0.70–0.85 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:09
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Sekera – Pysyk9:03
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sekera – Klingberg2:26
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Verhaeghe – Barkov6:36
xG 1.02–0.25 (80%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov9:14
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Duclair – Marchment – Luostarinen2:08
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Lammikko – Marchment – Lomberg4:41
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad19:45
xG 1.79–0.37 (83%)attempts 29–9goals 1–0
- Stralman – Connauton16:52
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Stralman – Weegar2:32
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).