Fri, Feb 26, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 08 | 113 | 128 |
| MIN | 316 | 06 | 08 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:31MINNick BjugstadGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:36MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 17:10LAKJeff CarterAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:06MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:16LAKOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
- P3 4:06LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:41MINNico Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:49MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36LAKTobias Bjornfot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Amadio – Moore3:15
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Grundstrom – Lizotte3:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Amadio – Wagner2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Vilardi5:06
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Bjornfot13:24
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Maatta17:55
xG 0.50–1.28 (28%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Bjugstad – Sturm6:50
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Fiala – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:53
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Parise – Foligno – Hartman10:30
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov11:56
xG 0.80–0.73 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:26
xG 0.79–0.12 (87%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:55
xG 1.09–0.54 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy11:44
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).