Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 210 | 111 | 13 | 431 |
| NYI | 19 | 210 | 06 | 02 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:40NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 1:34NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee, Scott Mayfield · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:17PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:43PITKris LetangAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:51NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:18PITJared McCannAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 4:34PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:12NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:37NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P1 18:07PITCody Ceci: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:11NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:33NYIMathew Barzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:58NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – McCann13:40
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Lafferty – Angello5:03
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Kapanen12:02
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:58
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Joseph9:50
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Marino16:39
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Letang – Pettersson15:17
xG 0.63–0.76 (45%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:21
xG 1.07–0.44 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas5:41
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:01
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom7:39
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:09
xG 1.11–0.78 (59%)attempts 23–16goals 1–2
- Greene – Dobson9:28
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Leddy2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).