Sat, Feb 27, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 214 | 211 | 532 |
| CHI | 013 | 110 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:27DETBobby RyanAssists: Robby Fabbri, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:53CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Calvin de Haan, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:09DETDarren HelmAssists: Luke Glendening, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 18:27DETChristian DjoosPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 2:33DETEvgeny SvechnikovGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
- P3 4:43CHIMattias JanmarkAssists: Carl Soderberg, Adam Boqvist · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 8:15DETFrans NielsenAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 19:48CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Brandon Hagel, David Kampf · Backhand, 0.22 xG5–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 17:21CHICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47DETAdam Erne: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Nielsen – Svechnikov9:00
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Helm – Glendening – Erne11:31
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Ryan – Mantha – Fabbri11:11
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Zadina11:05
xG 0.09–0.92 (9%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Merrill16:50
xG 0.55–0.71 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 3–0
- Nemeth – Djoos13:08
xG 1.01–1.41 (42%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
- DeKeyser – Hronek18:43
xG 0.56–1.08 (34%)attempts 14–26goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Kampf3:25
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev11:32
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter16:22
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 1–3
- Kubalik – Wallmark – Hagel7:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov16:56
xG 1.39–0.51 (73%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Keith – Mitchell16:29
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- de Haan – Murphy2:20
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).