Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 09 | 012 | 130 |
| NSH | 012 | 213 | 08 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Boone Jenner, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 1:12NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Dante Fabbro, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:54NSHMattias EkholmGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:50CBJZach Werenski: Holding2 min
- P1 17:40CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:08NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:24NSHErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:30CBJSeth Jones: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:32CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:22NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Jenner – Roslovic7:13
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Nash – Stenlund – Robinson4:34
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine5:26
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Stenlund2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Savard2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Carlsson9:48
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski15:17
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Arvidsson8:28
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Tolvanen10:05
xG 0.17–0.13 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi8:58
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Haula – Sissons – Kunin10:42
xG 0.30–0.52 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro3:01
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis11:25
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Benning8:37
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).