Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 014 | 113 | 014 | 00 | 141 |
| WPG | 07 | 19 | 02 | 13 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:38WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 15:13MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Joel Armia, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:36WPGPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:32MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:21WPGSami Niku: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:38MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 9:04MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:33WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:19
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Suzuki15:17
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi11:24
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans5:54
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson15:49
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov14:19
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 21–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:44
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Perreault4:40
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Dubois11:52
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor12:59
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton12:50
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Niku10:33
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk16:01
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Morrissey19:57
xG 0.49–1.34 (27%)attempts 10–32goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).