Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 29 | 113 | 17 | 429 |
| EDM | 010 | 011 | 09 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:50TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:15TORJason SpezzaAssists: Jimmy Vesey, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 13:34TORZach HymanAssists: Pierre Engvall, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
Penalties (1)
- P1 14:13EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Tavares – Marner14:39
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Engvall – Mikheyev15:19
xG 0.83–0.77 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Barabanov10:08
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey7:38
xG 0.04–0.55 (6%)attempts 1–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly19:58
xG 1.33–0.86 (61%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Rielly2:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott13:40
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Russell – Haas10:33
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira9:39
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun10:04
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- McDavid – Yamamoto – Kahun3:41
xG 0.10–0.11 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Jones10:04
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones4:18
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Larsson11:50
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).