Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 17 | 09 | 14 | 327 |
| ANA | 16 | 05 | 113 | 06 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09ANARickard RakellAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:29VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Shea Theodore, Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:10VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 11:05ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 3:23VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:08ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:02ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:15VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
- P3 8:38ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 11:05VGKKeegan Kolesar: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Kolesar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Kolesar10:44
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Roy10:44
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Smith – Glass12:29
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Tuch13:23
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pietrangelo – Theodore19:07
xG 0.78–0.87 (47%)attempts 24–18goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud2:01
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud14:47
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Jones – Comtois8:08
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Milano – Jones6:47
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Zegras3:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rakell – Comtois – Lundeström3:47
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Hakanpää17:35
xG 1.08–0.15 (88%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm13:57
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hutton – Larsson15:34
xG 0.58–0.95 (38%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).