Sat, Feb 27, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 7, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 316 | 39 | 731 |
| SJS | 212 | 220 | 28 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17SJSTimo MeierAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:08STLMarco ScandellaUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 10:11SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 3:34STLSammy BlaisAssists: Vince Dunn, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 6:43SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 7:28STLBrayden SchennAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 10:34SJSEvander KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 18:16STLZachary SanfordAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 1:18STLMackenzie MacEachernSHAssists: Zachary Sanford, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 2:13SJSKevin LabancAssists: John Leonard, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.16 xG5–5
- P3 3:20STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.26 xG6–5
- P3 6:31SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Mario Ferraro · Deflected, 0.04 xG6–6
- P3 7:14STLMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:28STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07STLZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:53STLSammy Blais: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34STLJordan Binnington: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:36STLNiko Mikkola: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 11:44SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:05SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:57SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57STLZachary Sanford: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gambrell won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Sanford – Kyrou9:49
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Hoffman – O'Reilly – Blais2:19
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Blais6:46
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – MacEachern2:05
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dunn9:36
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug10:56
xG 0.76–0.60 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola5:39
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Donato – Leonard10:32
xG 0.58–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc12:42
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Nieto – Gregor – Chmelevski5:31
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Meier – Balcers – Gambrell12:28
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Knyzhov11:46
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 1–3
- Burns – Karlsson2:20
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Simek12:14
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).