Sun, Feb 28, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 321 | 04 | 338 |
| BUF | 07 | 012 | 09 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:22PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Joel Farabee, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 1:37PHIMichael RafflAssists: Robert Hagg, Philippe Myers · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:23PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Joel Farabee, Ivan Provorov · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:14PHIJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:59BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:51BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:13PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:34PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Patrick10:33
xG 1.07–0.19 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Lindblom8:22
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee9:23
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman7:58
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov14:39
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Hagg – Myers10:32
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim13:27
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel4:36
xG 0.49–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Okposo – Hall11:57
xG 0.78–0.89 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Mittelstadt5:37
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Skinner – Lazar3:47
xG 0.05–0.62 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Montour7:42
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Davidson – Jokiharju5:29
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Irwin – Montour5:41
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).