Sun, Feb 28, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 112 | 117 | 436 |
| NYR | 09 | 06 | 16 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:14BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: Connor Clifton, Jack Studnicka · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 10:20BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 10:47NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:05BOSCharlie CoyleENAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:35NYRRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:48BOSNick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:48NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:48BOSNick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:47BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:47NYRColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:47BOSGreg McKegg: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:09BOSCraig Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00BOSNick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Frederic – Studnicka11:00
xG 0.79–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:28
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Coyle – Ritchie9:46
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- McKegg – Kuraly – Kuhlman7:45
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Vaakanainen4:04
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Clifton – Carlo14:33
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Vaakanainen12:47
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Gauthier – Howden8:37
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Blackwell – Strome8:11
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Lafrenière5:03
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Fox – Lindgren15:25
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Smith – Miller16:35
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Johnson – Hajek13:54
xG 0.24–0.83 (22%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).