Sun, Feb 28, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 29 | 01 | 323 |
| NJD | 17 | 110 | 04 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45NJDMikhail MaltsevAssists: P.K. Subban, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:39WSHJakub VranaAssists: Tom Wilson, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 2:32WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson, Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 3:20NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Miles Wood, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:37WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:39NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:14WSHDmitry Orlov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:03WSHBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:03NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:06NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:12NJDAndreas Johnsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Vrana6:54
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Oshie – Panik – Sprong7:32
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:05
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Sheary11:32
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon15:18
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Schultz – Orlov13:59
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGusev – Zacha – Bratt9:51
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Maltsev5:00
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Palmieri – McLeod – Maltsev3:04
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Zacha – Bratt2:11
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher12:04
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Subban – Kulikov9:54
xG 0.36–0.26 (59%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Butcher – Smith2:30
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).