Mon, Mar 1, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Edmonton Oilers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 310 | 05 | 08 | 323 |
| EDM | 09 | 08 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Ilya Mikheyev · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:20TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:07TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 15:15TORJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P2 8:29TORTravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:55EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P2 15:17EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:42TORAlexander Barabanov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35EDMJosh Archibald: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:35TORTravis Dermott: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:35EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:35TORZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00EDMAlex Chiasson: Cross checking5 min
- P3 0:00EDMAlex Chiasson: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Nylander – Barabanov3:33
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey3:01
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Mikheyev2:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Vesey – Engvall2:21
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott10:32
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Brodie2:23
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:45
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Yamamoto6:14
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Puljujarvi – Kahun4:28
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi4:59
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira8:13
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones13:34
xG 0.61–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:25
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bear – Bouchard8:14
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 14–2goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).