Mon, Mar 1, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 416 | 03 | 00 | 430 |
| VGK | 012 | 215 | 211 | 11 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:09VGKCody GlassPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:51MINJordan GreenwayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 9:57MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 13:41VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:53MINNick BoninoAssists: Nico Sturm, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 18:12MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Zach Parise, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:40VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Mark Stone, Zach Whitecloud · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:18VGKAlex TuchAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 2:00VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.37 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:24MINMathew Dumba: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:02MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59MINKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:30
xG 0.83–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Bonino – Bjugstad – Sturm4:30
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Bjugstad – Kaprizov2:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Foligno – Hartman7:23
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:49
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba20:27
xG 0.84–0.84 (50%)attempts 16–20goals 3–0
- Cole – Soucy12:56
xG 0.60–1.11 (35%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault7:58
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Kolesar6:41
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson6:39
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Glass3:23
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore18:13
xG 1.32–0.41 (76%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Martinez – Whitecloud19:57
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Martinez – Hague2:32
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).